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	<title>5 Min. Forecast &#187; MBIA</title>
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		<title>U.S. Debt In Foreign Hands, Russia to Buy Fannie and Freddie, Financials to Fall Again, and More!</title>
		<link>http://5minforecast.agorafinancial.com/us-debt-in-foreign-hands-russia-to-buy-fannie-and-freddie-financials-to-fall-again-and-more/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Feb 2008 19:39:39 +0000</pubDate>
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				<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Citigroup]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Today's 5 Minutes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.agorafinancial.com/5min/us-debt-in-foreign-hands-russia-to-buy-fannie-and-freddie-financials-to-fall-again-and-more/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[by Addison Wiggin &#38; Ian Mathias 


Surprising data: U.S. debt still has takers&#8230; is our democracy doomed?


Russian SWFs get OK to invest in America… but only in the two worst stocks on the market


Analyst that predicated the January financials plunge calls for 15-50% more losses


How a Philadelphia survey might herald an entire U.S. manufacturing decline [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><font face="Verdana" size="2">by </font><a href="http://www.addisonwiggin.com/"><font face="Verdana" size="2">Addison Wiggin</font></a><font face="Verdana" size="2"> &amp; </font><a href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/EDITORS_IanMathias.html"><font face="Verdana" size="2">Ian Mathias</font></a><font size="2"><font face="Verdana"> </font></font></font></p>
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<div class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Surprising data: U.S. debt still has takers&#8230; is our democracy doomed?</font></div>
</li>
<li>
<div class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Russian SWFs get OK to invest in America… but only in the two worst stocks on the market</font></div>
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<div class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Analyst that predicated the January financials plunge calls for 15-50% more losses</font></div>
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<div class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">How a Philadelphia survey might herald an entire U.S. manufacturing decline </font></div>
</li>
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<div class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">U.S. markets fall again… an atypical chart shows the Dow deep into an 8-year bear market</font></div>
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</ul>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">&nbsp;</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z00_00.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  Here’s some interesting news. <strong>The Chinese bought more U.S. debt in December than they sold</strong>&#8230; the first time they’ve done so since before the credit crisis began last July. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Mainland China upped its stake in American debt during the month by nearly $20 billion, to $405 billion. Thus, surprisingly, China has brought U.S. Treasury holdings back to pre-credit crisis levels.</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Also interesting, Brazil more than doubled its stake in U.S. debt last year, from $53 billion to $126 billion. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">As we hasten to note nearly every time this data is released, the number of Treasury notes owned by foreign governments is breathtaking. Even though Japan has been a net seller for the last six months, Japan, China, the U.K. and Brazil own over $1.4 trillion in U.S. Treasuries themselves. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z00_31.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>“Can democracy survive when its financial roots have been cut?”</strong> asked the economist James Galbraith back in 2006. “The American citizenry has lost its pride of place as creditor of the American state. The proportion of U.S. debt owned directly by Americans has fallen to below 10%; in 1945 (when the debt was more than twice as large in relation to GDP as now), citizen-creditors just about held it all.”</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Combined, financial institutions and foreign nations now own over 70% of U.S. debt.</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">“The scale of public debt is not the issue,” contends Galbraith, “but its ownership is. Can a country &#8212; whether the United States or any other &#8212; be truly democratic if it is in hock to banks and foreigners?”</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">“We no longer ‘owe it to ourselves,’ as FDR used to say,” opines our Byron King. “The banks and overseas creditors have hijacked the bond process. The citizens have little direct stake in the U.S. government, certainly not as bondholders. And more than half of all citizens pay no taxes at all. Over 50% of all taxes are paid by the wealthiest 3% of households; 90% of all taxes are paid by the wealthiest 10%.</p>
<p>“I guess the amounts of money were just too large for the citizenry to continue to buy bonds and keep a financial stake in the health of the government. So with no financial stake in their own government, it&#8217;s all about ‘I get mine.’ From pork at the congressional level to ‘what benefits can I get?’ at the personal. Heck, everyone wants their check from the government. Hey, where&#8217;s mine? </font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">“We&#8217;re doomed.” </font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z01_06.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>The Russian government has given two sovereign wealth funds worth $157 billion the green light to begin buying bonds of foreign government agencies.</strong> The Russian Finance Ministry told its SWFs yesterday that 15% of their funds can now be used to buy the debt of 15 different international government-backed companies. </font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Most interesting to us, the Russian funds will now be allowed to buy debt of two U.S. companies &#8212; Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Oy… we hope they know what they’re getting into. </font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">The other 85% will be used to purchase sovereign debt.</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z01_19.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>Meredith Whitney, the Oppenheimer analyst who outed Citigroup back in November, has issued another sell signal for banks yesterday. </strong><br />
</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">A day after Whitney’s November warning, Citigroup stock fell 7% and the Dow shed 2.6%. Soon after, Citi cut its dividend by 41%, and has lost about 30% of its “value.” At the time, Whitney’s alert was rewarded with death threats from investors in the stock. </font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">If you’re a Citi shareholder, grab your latex gloves and start cutting out letters from the newspaper. There’s more pain to come: &#8220;The best-case downside scenario,” Whitney told CNBC, “is that there is a 15% downside in the financials; worst case is 50%.” Whitney also speculated that Citi will soon need to cut its dividend again and raise much more capital to cover write-downs. </font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z01_42.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>Bond insurer MBIA withdrew from its industry trade group &#8212; the Association of Financial Guaranty Insurers &#8212; yesterday.</strong> Ironically, MBIA chieftains claim that the industry must begin separating the business of insuring muni bonds from insuring riskier assets like CDOs and asset-backed securities.</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">&#8220;It is up to us to shape our future,&#8221; said newly crowned MBIA CEO Jay Brown, “in a way that we believe is most responsive to the markets, our policyholders and our owners, and we must do so without the constraints of participation in an industry association that does not always share our views.”</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z02_02.jpg" align="bottom" border="0" /> <strong> Food prices will rise 3-4% in 2008,</strong> predicted the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s chief economist Joseph Glauber yesterday. Should his prediction come true, that would spell a whopping 8% inflation rate for food since January 2007.</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">&#8220;While the ethanol boom can be expected to bring higher incomes to farmers and reduce government outlays for farm programs,&#8221; Glauber suggested at the USDA annual outlook conference, “it will also contribute to higher crop and livestock prices… Overall retail food prices for 2008-2010 are expected to rise faster than the general inflation rate.&#8221;</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">&#8220;There&#8217;s going to be real food inflation in this country,&#8221; added C. Larry Pope, CEO of Smithfield Foods. &#8220;I think we need to tell the American consumer that things are going up. We&#8217;re seeing cost increases that we&#8217;ve never seen in our business.&#8221;</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Ahh… Inflation, the hidden tax, continuing in a grocery store near you. </font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z02_32.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>The Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Index fell to minus 24 from minus 20 in January.</strong> Often seen as a precursor to the ISM’s manufacturing index &#8212; which we’ll see on March 3 &#8212; the Philly Fed’s index now lies at lows unseen since post-tech bust 2001. </font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">In fact, the Fed division’s measurement of “six-month outlook” fell to minus 16.9. That’s the first negative reading since 2001 and the lowest since 1990. Traders have baked in a ISM report early next month… perhaps you should, too.</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z02_50.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>The dollar took that news on the chin… again.</strong> As the dollar index fell back to 75, the euro rose well into $1.48, about a cent short of its all-time high set in November. The pound and loonie recovered too, back up as high as $1.96 and 99 cents, respectively. The yen found its way back to 107. </font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z03_02.gif" align="bottom" border="0" /> <strong>Gold struck yet another record high yesterday, of $953 per ounce.</strong> <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0470047666/102-4271854-9661739?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=whiskegunpow-20&amp;linkCode=xm2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creativeASIN=0470047666">The once and future money</a> has gained over $40 this week alone. Since striking its new high, we note that the gold price has stayed in a tight rage between $945-950 in Asian and European trading overnight. </font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z03_14.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>The stock market in the U.S. lost about 1.2% in yesterday’s trading session.</strong> The Philly Fed Index seemed to be the downer of the day… losers topped winners 3-to-1 on the NYSE. In spite of all the recent volatility and occasional market upswings, the Dow is now a mere 2.5% above its January low. </font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">And for some broader perspective, check out this graph of the Dow priced in gold:</font></font></p>
<div>
<div align="center"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/midastouch.gif" align="bottom" border="0" height="415" width="470" /></font></div>
</div>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">The Dow, priced in gold, has been a totally hopeless venture since the tech boom. In 2000, you would have needed 45 ounces of gold to buy one “share” in the Dow… today those 45 ounces would fetch you three times the number of Dow stocks.</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">We recall, working with Bill Bonner in 2000-2001, issuing the <a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/0471696587?tag=therudeawaken-20&amp;camp=14573&amp;creative=327641&amp;linkCode=as1&amp;creativeASIN=0471696587&amp;adid=1P9QJ14BPPETJMBMH6XX&amp;">“Trade of the Decade</a>: Sell the Dow, Buy Gold.” Eight years on, we’re feeling pretty good about that trade. </font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z03_45.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>Across the Pacific, the Shanghai Composite fell again overnight, this time by 3.5%.</strong> We hear that many “lockup periods” among institutional shareholders &#8212; holding huge amounts of recent IPOs &#8212; will soon expire in China. Coupled with higher-than-usual share offerings from Chinese financial institutions, investors are bailing in fear that a flood of shares will soon hit the market with nary a buyer in sight.</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z03_56.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>Oil backed off a bit yesterday from its recent high of $101.</strong> Light sweet crude fell to $98 in New York yesterday on Energy Department reports of higher-than-expected crude inventories. </font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z04_00.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>The U.S. government has reversed its decision to remove the economicindicators.gov site</strong>, reports the Commerce Department yesterday. “Given the feedback… received,” says the site, the government will continue to offer its listing of economic resources for free. As usual, we’ll attribute this victory solely to the power of The 5 and its readers.</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Despite the government’s retraction, John Williams of shadowstats.com tells us he will still run an economic indicators site of his own, also for free. Like most other private ventures aimed at replacing a government-sponsored service, we suspect John’s will somehow be superior.</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Check it out <a href="http://www.shadowstats.com/economic_indicators">here.</a><br />
</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z04_16.jpg" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>“Have one of your researchers look up the Great Panic of 1907,”</strong> suggests a reader. “The current situation is very similar, but with more zeros in the numbers. Bank fraud, commodities corners, asset collapse. Unfortunately, J.P. Morgan is not alive to solve the problem this time.”</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><strong>The 5 responds:</strong><br />
We mentioned the eerie similarities between 1907 and today back in <a href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/5min/fed-cuts-rates-gs-and-cfc-suffer-toy-flation-an-ethanol-forecast-and-more/">September</a> and <a href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/5min/another-market-correction-goldman-calls-recession-mayer-on-nat-gas-restaurants-suffer-and-more/">January.</a> Warren Buffett is probably the closest the U.S. has to a J.P. Morgan today, but while he may lend a hand in the muni bond arena, Berkshire Hathaway is a long way from having the funds to bail out the entire financial system. Buffett says as much in <a href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/iousa.html">I.O.U.S.A..</a><br />
</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z04_24.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>“That reader was right,”</strong> writes a reader responding to <a href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/5min/fed-alters-growth-outlook-fomc-minutes-decoded-possible-global-famine-a-suprime-proof-market-and-more/">yesterday&#8217;s debate.</a> “THE money didn&#8217;t vanish. YOUR money vanished into someone else&#8217;s pocket. You had $70; now he has it. You were counting on somebody paying you maybe $100 down the road; now he wants to pay you 30 cents, which is the new value of your holdings. This is not ‘semantics’: it&#8217;s how to correctly state risk and outcome. Journalists are always asking what happened to THE money, probably because they never had any to lose.” </font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z04_36.jpg" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>“The reader surmising that the vanishing <a href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/5min/total-cost-of-subprime-crisis-bernanke-translations-gold-about-to-breakout-natgas-and-more/">$7.7 trillion</a></strong>,” another responds, “somehow ended up being transferred from banks to sovereign wealth funds must not have noticed that money flows only in the other direction. </font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">“Make no mistake about it: SWFs get their money from U.S. consumers buying oil from Abu Dhabi and rubber dog crap or Pocket Fishermen from China. If you don&#8217;t like it, then stop buying gas for your car, plastics and other oil-derived products, and anything manufactured in China. </font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">“I hear the Amish make killer wooden toys.”</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z04_55.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>“The reader who thinks somebody still holds the ‘other side of the trade,’”</strong> comments a third, “in the vanishing $7.7 trillion is also failing to consider the multiplying effects of leverage and credit. I&#8217;ll buy $1 billion of your paper by putting up $200 million (or so) of my cash in an asset-backed security, giving you $800 million, while at the same time, I&#8217;ll sell the $1 billion of paper for $1.1 billion and collect $220 million cash and take my buyers $980 million ABS. </font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">“I&#8217;ll be sure to buy a credit default swap from somebody to be sure I get my money and I can pay my seller. The guy I sold to has probably sold again, and then again, etc., etc., until we get about $1 trillion. Pretty soon, all that &#8220;the other side of the trade&#8221; is holding as real value is the down payments on the deals, while all the credit portions of the deals vaporize.”</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Have a nice weekend,</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Addison Wiggin<br />
The 5 Min. Forecast</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><strong>P.S. Are you enjoying your 173% gain?</strong> Back in October, in your complimentary issue of Strategic Short Report, Dan Amoss recommended you short Systemax, a computer retailer on the verge of collapse. Last month, just about three months later, Dan recommended you end your short position in Systemax… for a sweet 173% return. During that same period, the Dow fell over 10%. Not too shabby, eh?</p>
<p>The beta issues of Strategic Short Report generated such positive response &#8212; and handsome gains &#8212; that we’re currently offering three additional months for free. <a href="http://www.isecureonline.com/Reports/SSR/ESSRJ222/">Click here to learn more.</a><br />
</font></font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><strong>P.P.S. &#8220;For most investors, the surest way to profit from the weakening U.S. dollar</strong> is to invest directly in strong currencies and their certificates of deposit (CDs)&#8230;&#8221; Who said it and why? <a href="http://www.everbank.com/002GlobalResources.aspx?ReferID=11925">Check it out here.</a><br />
</font></font></p>

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		<title>Stimulus Package Approved, MBIA in Trouble, More Buffett Wisdom, SWF&#8217;s Threat to U.S., and More!</title>
		<link>http://5minforecast.agorafinancial.com/stimulus-package-approved-mbia-in-trouble-more-buffett-wisdom-swfs-threat-to-us-and-more/</link>
		<comments>http://5minforecast.agorafinancial.com/stimulus-package-approved-mbia-in-trouble-more-buffett-wisdom-swfs-threat-to-us-and-more/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Feb 2008 19:32:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[MBIA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Today's 5 Minutes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic stimulus package]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.agorafinancial.com/5min/stimulus-package-approved-mbia-in-trouble-more-buffett-wisdom-swfs-threat-to-us-and-more/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[by Addison Wiggin &#38; Ian Mathias 


Brace yourself for “government stimulation”… policymakers to the rescue!


MBIA sinks deeper into the abyss… Buffett on the “poetic justice” being served to financials


Euro now accepted at froufrou NYC shops… and anarchist Baltimore java pits


Eric Fry on the coming commercial real estate collapse


Washington ramps up SWF fear rhetoric… how the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><font face="Verdana" size="2">by </font><a href="http://www.addisonwiggin.com/"><font face="Verdana" size="2">Addison Wiggin</font></a><font face="Verdana" size="2"> &amp; </font><a href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/EDITORS_IanMathias.html"><font face="Verdana" size="2">Ian Mathias</font></a><font size="2"><font face="Verdana"> </font></font></font></p>
<ul>
<li>
<div class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Brace yourself for “government stimulation”… policymakers to the rescue!</font></div>
</li>
<li>
<div class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">MBIA sinks deeper into the abyss… Buffett on the “poetic justice” being served to financials</font></div>
</li>
<li>
<div class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Euro now accepted at froufrou NYC shops… and anarchist Baltimore java pits</font></div>
</li>
<li>
<div class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Eric Fry on the coming commercial real estate collapse</font></div>
</li>
<li>
<div class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Washington ramps up SWF fear rhetoric… how the decision to allow foreign investments was made for you long ago</font></div>
</li>
</ul>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">&nbsp;</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z00_00.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>By a vote of 81 to 16, the Senate passed the much hyped “economic stimulus package” yesterday. </strong>So prepare to be stimulated. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Senators added a few extra greenbacks to the bill, meant for Social Security recipients and disabled veterans, bringing the grand total to $168 billion. The bill still needs to be signed into law by President Bush, but with his penchant for spending… it’s a no-brainer. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">“We are making history,” gleamed Nancy Pelosi. “What has passed the Congress in record time is a gift to the middle class and those who aspire to it in our country.” </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="center">&nbsp;</p>
<div>
<div align="center"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/bush-and-nancy-pelosi.jpg" align="bottom" border="0" /><br />
<em>Mr. and Mrs. America… ready to stimulate</em></font></div>
</div>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Yeah, a gift… $168 billion added to the national tab. Thanks, Nancy. Congress has taken $168 billion and thrown it “into a mud puddle,” commented Sen. Bob Corker, according to The New York Times. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z00_31.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>On the news, stocks snapped their three-day losing streak. </strong>The Dow finished up 0.4% for the day. The Nasdaq closed up 0.6%. And the S&amp;P 500 &#8212; the “big winner” &#8212; rose 0.8%. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z00_33.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>In December, consumer borrowing eased to its slowest pace in eight months, </strong>reported the Fed yesterday. Consumer borrowing increased 2.1% during the month, by $4.5 billion. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">The very fact that the general populace and news networks like CNN consider $4.5 billion in monthly consumer borrowing to be evidence of “sluggish economic activity” is a testament to the times, isn’t it? </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">U.S. consumers now owe their respective lenders over $2.5 trillion, excluding mortgages. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z00_50.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>Echoing the latest consumer data, Wal-Mart released a pretty anemic earnings report this week. </strong>The U.S.’s most prominent retailer saw just 0.5% growth in January. According to Retail Metrics, January retail sales rose a sluggish 0.2%. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z00_58.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>Bond insurer MBIA printed an extra 82 million in stock yesterday in an effort to quickly raise capital. </strong>Clearly desperate to maintain its AAA rating, MBIA hopes to raise about $1 billion during the offering… which will presumably be used to back insured bonds entering default. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">That’s just super news for the few remaining (read: “insane”)  MBIA stockholders: Shares are down over 10% on the news. Now around $12 per share, MBIA stock has fallen nearly 80% since October 2007. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z01_06.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>&#8220;It&#8217;s sort of a little poetic justice,&#8221; </strong>Warren Buffett commented earlier this week, “in that the people that brewed this toxic Kool-Aid found themselves drinking a lot of it in the end.” The Oracle was less than sympathetic when asked about the financial world’s rise and fall courtesy of complex mortgage-backed securities. We can’t help but expect MBIA and the likes of other insures to take a few more forced swigs before the “crisis” is all over. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Regarding his long-term outlook, Buffett was as cautiously bullish as always: &#8220;I wouldn&#8217;t quite call it a credit crunch. Funds are available… Money is available, and it&#8217;s really quite cheap because of the lowering of rates that has taken place…</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">&#8220;What has happened is a repricing of risk and an unavailability of what I might call &#8216;dumb money,&#8217; of which there was plenty around a year ago.&#8221; Buffett has been mostly unfazed over the turmoil among financials. Instead, <a href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/5min/home-prices-to-fall-in-08-buffett-slams-the-dollar-crazy-new-pentagon-budget-uk-trouble-and-more/">he cites the dwindling value of the dollar</a> as his most serious concern. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z01_30.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />   <strong>“Buffett did not say the dollar would be ‘worthless,’ </strong>a reader corrects us. “He said it would be ‘worth less.’ A significant distinction, wouldn&#8217;t you say? Don&#8217;t believe everything reported on CNBC.”</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><strong>The 5 responds: </strong>Like much of the financial community, we ate a little crow on this one. It was actually Dow Jones Newswires that misquoted Buffett and ran the “worthless” bit on MarketWatch, where we picked it up. Buffett then called CNBC, which happily interrupted its coverage to help him clarify such a “significant distinction.” Unfortunately, we had clicked the send button long after we caught wind of the correction.</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">We liked our version better. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z01_42.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>Speaking of our “worth less” dollar, the greenback continued to buck its losing trend yesterday and furthered its recent rally. </strong>Rate cuts from the Bank of England and some atypically softer language from the European Central Bank sent both currencies tumbling &#8212; the pound fell deeper into $1.94, the euro to $1.44, and the yen finally let go of 106… it’s trading now for 107. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z01_57.jpg" align="bottom" border="0" />  If you’re a dollar newshound, you’ve no doubt heard this Reuters story from this week: <strong>Numerous highbrow shops in Manhattan have begun accepting euros. </strong>From wine shops to antique stores, a growing number of the elite-serving NYC business are accommodating euro-holders, due much to the fact that the dollar’s current differential with the euro is attracting more European shoppers to the Big Apple. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">And we’re proud to see that our neighboring co-op anarchist coffee shop, <a href="http://www.redemmas.org/">Red Emma’s</a>, is now also accepting euros. Aside from selling the best coffee in Baltimore, Red Emma’s also stewards one of the most, umm, atypical bookshops in town. Subjects range from how-to guides on forming revolutionary militias, books about the benefits of transexuality in the 21st century, advice on overcoming various forms of oppression, to vegan cookbooks and the like.</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">There’s a small chance that the “euro-carrying” crowd may be akin to the patrons of this type of coffee shop/bookstore… but we suspect Emma’s posted the “Now accepting euros” sign just to piss people off. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z02_15.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  On the other hand, “A crippled finance industry cannot be good for midtown Manhattan rental rates,” Eric Fry says, “or for the rest of the nation&#8217;s commercial real estate market. <strong>The imploding finance sector is a nationwide crisis &#8212; one that undermines the viability of almost every capitalistic endeavor, especially endeavors like buying and building commercial real estate. </strong><br />
</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="center">&nbsp;</p>
<div>
<div align="center"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/highwire.gif" align="bottom" border="0" height="401" width="470" /></font></div>
</div>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><br />
“For the moment, commercial construction spending remains robust. But this apparent strength owes a larger debt of gratitude to the hopeful expectations of 2005 and 2006 than to the grim realities of 2008. Commercial projects operate on a much longer timeline than residential projects, due to the onerous permitting and approval processes. So many of today&#8217;s commercial construction sites are merely the gestation of ideas conceived two-three years ago.</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">“That&#8217;s why we would expect the commercial construction trend to begin mimicking the sickly trend of its residential counterpart&#8230; especially because the economy is slowing and the nation&#8217;s banks already hold too many commercial loans on their books. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">“Commercial real estate loans are dicey assets to hold in a slowing economy. A developer&#8217;s hoped-for occupancy projection can vanish faster than morals at a frat party. So the hoped-for cash flows don&#8217;t flow and, eventually, the banks become the proud owners of empty office buildings. Because of this risk, banks tend to curtail their commercial lending at the first sign of recession&#8230; or at least at the second or third sign. They&#8217;re banks, after all.” </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z03_10.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>“In Brazil and Argentina, you have one of the few places left in the world where you can acquire large tracts of land that can support large-scale agriculture,” </strong>writes Chris Mayer, always seeking the next opportunity around the bend. “Already, the two countries produce about one-third of the world’s agricultural commodities. As China is the world’s workshop and India its back office, so has South America become its breadbasket.”</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Brazil is the world’s largest producer of coffee, sugar cane, ethanol and fruit juice. It is also near the top in soybeans, beef, poultry and tobacco. Its agricultural sector alone has grown at a 5%-plus clip since 1999. “That’s pretty good for such a big sector. Agriculture represents about 8% of the economy, employs one-quarter of its work force and supports some 8 million enterprises.”</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Similarly, Argentina is also a leader in beef and grains &#8212; it is the largest consumer of beef on a per capita basis in the world. In beef production, Argentina is behind only Brazil and Australia. Argentina is also a major producer of soybeans, wheat, sorghum, rice, barley, lemons, apples, peaches, pears and more.</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">“But &#8212; as hard as this may be to fathom &#8212; there is the potential for so much more,” adds Chris. “The rise in the living standards of hundreds of millions of people in China and India, the resulting shift in dietary habits and the global push for alternative fuels derived from agricultural products put South America in the catbird seat. As an investor, I think I’d like to own companies that make the stuff that everybody else wants to pay more for. So it’s not hard to see why I should gaze at those lush farmlands in South America.”</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">As it turns out, another of South America’s greatest assets is fresh water. Chris has capitalized on the increased global importance of such a valuable commodity in his Special Situations portfolio. <a href="http://www.isecureonline.com/Reports/MSS/EMSSH701">Learn about it here.</a><br />
</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z04_00.gif" align="bottom" border="0" />  <strong>As expected, Congress got together for a good old-fashioned protectionist rally yesterday during its “U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.” </strong>Highlights include the following sound bites:</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">&#8220;Instead of rescuing our economy, these investments only deepen America&#8217;s insecurity, forcing the U.S. further into debt to foreign interests,&#8221; declared Ohio Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur. &#8220;More often than not, these deals are presented as purely financial when they are, in fact, political and strategic.”</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">&#8220;We cannot keep selling off our country,” said Sen. Jim Webb. &#8220;We need to ensure that our laws and policies distinguish between politically motivated sovereign investment and commercially motivated sovereign investment.&#8221;</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">&#8220;We are concerned that if the government from which we seek assistance is also controlling the entity under investigation, the nature and extent of the cooperation could be compromised,&#8221; said Linda Chatman Thomsen of the SEC, concerned that SWF leaders will be prone to insider trading and abusing their ties to state governments. (Much as our very own national leaders are already behaving.)</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">“We cannot allow uncontrolled investments in the U.S. for the sake of satisfying the greed of U.S. investors,” adds a reader e-mail in The 5’s inbox. “Some Americans would sell their mother to the highest bidder. The example here is China, and they have just been named as the greatest spy threat to the U.S. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">“If China is allowed to invest in the U.S., when this is all over in the future, we could find that we don&#8217;t have control over our country, and we could face a huge military threat from them.”</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><strong>The 5 responds: </strong>The government whored out the fiscal future of the U.S. <a href="http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt">a long time ago.</a> China could cash in all those T-bonds and crush this economy, anytime they feel like it. Get used to it. </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z04_47.jpg" align="bottom" border="0" />  As if to spite the naysayers on Capitol Hill, <strong>China’s SWF, China Investment Corp., announced today it may invest $4 billion in the private equity firm JC Flowers.</strong><br />
</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">If the deal goes through, Flowers will set up a portfolio for the Chinese SWF that will invest solely in distressed financial institutions. Thus, China would be buying up stakes in American businesses a bit more indirectly and giving a piece of the profits to Flowers, itself an American institution. Feel better now? </font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Have a nice weekend,</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2">Addison Wiggin<br />
The 5 Min. Forecast</font></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif" size="2"><strong>P.S. Interested in learning how to trade options? </strong>Options can be a great way to grab quick profits as today’s choppy markets swing up and down. Starting soon, we’re offering four free months of our most popular options trading service &#8212; Options Hotline. This offer will last just a little more than a week… don’t miss your chance. For details, keep an eye on your inbox.</font></p>

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		<title>Another Rate Cut, More &#8220;Stimulus,&#8221; Crazy Weather in China, The Super Bowl, and More!</title>
		<link>http://5minforecast.agorafinancial.com/another-rate-cut-more-stimulus-crazy-weather-in-china-the-super-bowl-and-more/</link>
		<comments>http://5minforecast.agorafinancial.com/another-rate-cut-more-stimulus-crazy-weather-in-china-the-super-bowl-and-more/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Jan 2008 18:12:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dollar]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Today's 5 Minutes]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.agorafinancial.com/5min/another-rate-cut-more-stimulus-crazy-weather-in-china-the-super-bowl-and-more/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[by Addison Wiggin &#38; Ian Mathias 


Mighty American consumer shows new signs of strain


Markets react to 1.25% rate cut in a week: &#8220;Is that all?&#8221;


Tales from the credit crunch: MBIA gets bailout, S&#38;P cuts ratings


Senate&#8217;s stimulus: Costs more, puts less in your pocket


Putting a price tag on China&#8217;s &#8220;Storm of the Century&#8221;


Retailers&#8217; own Super Bowl [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><font face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><font size="2" face="Verdana">by </font><a href="http://www.addisonwiggin.com/"><font size="2" face="Verdana">Addison Wiggin</font></a><font size="2" face="Verdana"> &amp; </font><a href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/EDITORS_IanMathias.html"><font size="2" face="Verdana">Ian Mathias</font></a><font size="2"><font face="Verdana"> </font></font></font></p>
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<div align="left" class="BodyCopy"><font size="2" face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Mighty American consumer shows new signs of strain</font></div>
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<div align="left" class="BodyCopy"><font size="2" face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Markets react to 1.25% rate cut in a week: &#8220;Is that all?&#8221;</font></div>
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<div align="left" class="BodyCopy"><font size="2" face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Tales from the credit crunch: MBIA gets bailout, S&amp;P cuts ratings</font></div>
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<div align="left" class="BodyCopy"><font size="2" face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Senate&#8217;s stimulus: Costs more, puts less in your pocket</font></div>
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<div align="left" class="BodyCopy"><font size="2" face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Putting a price tag on China&#8217;s &#8220;Storm of the Century&#8221;</font></div>
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<div align="left" class="BodyCopy"><font size="2" face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Retailers&#8217; own Super Bowl bet set to pay off big<br />
 </font></div>
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<img border="0" align="baseline" src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z00_00.gif" />  <strong>Consumer spending in December rose 0.2% from the month before &#8212; the lowest rise since it fell a tenth of a percent in September 2006. </strong>Personal income rose half a percent. Adjusted for inflation, spending went nowhere… zilcho. And income increased two-tenths of a percent. </font></p>
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<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">Whoa, Nellie! We need to slow this economy down before we overheat.</p>
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<img border="0" align="baseline" src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z00_21.gif" /> <strong> As expected, the Fed cut its lending rate again yesterday… by 50 basis points. </strong>That’s 125 points in a week. </font></p>
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<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">The U.S. stock market rejoiced. The Dow skyrocketed over 200 points within an hour. But the buzz wore off quickly, as market makers realized the cut had been baked into stock prices long ago… U.S. benchmarks ended the day down 0.3%. Just as <a href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/5min/gdp-plummets-fomc-meets-fbi-goes-after-subprime-chinese-ban-bags-and-more/">Ian predicted.</a></p>
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<img border="0" align="baseline" src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z00_31.gif" /> <strong> Likewise, the U.S. dollar got creamed just as Eli Manning will on Sunday. </strong>Nearly stagnant GDP growth and the Fed’s 50 points whipped traders into a frenzy. When the dust cleared, the dollar index had fallen to 75 even, about half a point short of its all-time low. </font></p>
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<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">The euro surged up a cent and a half, to $1.49. The pound is back to $1.99. The yen regained 106, and the loonie passed parity again, now trading at a $1 and change.</p>
<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">We reviewed cover copy and a final manuscript for the second edition of <a href="http://www.agorafinancialpublications.com/Demise.html">The Demise of the Dollar</a> this morning. Should be hitting shelves within the month… we’ll keep you up-to-date. Go Patriots!</p>
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<img border="0" align="baseline" src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z00_50.gif" />  <strong>Gold buyers rejoiced en force on the rate cut news, too. </strong>The yellow metal surged to a record $942. Overnight in Asian trading, gold settled back to a respectable $926. </font></p>
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<img border="0" align="baseline" src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z00_56.gif" />  <strong>The Senate Finance Committee approved its version of the “stimulus” package yesterday. </strong>It’s already $12 billion heavier than when it left the House… now weighing in at over $150 billion. Despite the extra funding, the average American will actually get less than they would had the House’s $146 package gone straight to law. </font></p>
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<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">The current version of the stimulus package encompasses a wider range of potential recipients… now anyone making less than $150,000 per year will get a check. The new package will also now include those living on Social Security and unemployment, while additionally extending unemployment benefits and lightening requirements.</p>
<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">&#8220;This package will put rebates into the hands of 20 million additional American seniors,&#8221; said committee chairman Senator Max Baucus, “plus lower-income payroll taxpayers and disabled veterans &#8212; all of whom will spend this money quickly and give our economy the shot in the arm that it needs.”</p>
<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">Yawn… stretch.</p>
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<img border="0" align="baseline" src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z01_20.gif" />  <strong>Bond insurer MBIA announced a $2.3 billion quarterly loss this morning, </strong>thanks mostly to a $3.5 billion write-down due to its credit derivatives portfolio. Big surprise, there. MBIA also announced it has received a $500 million shot in the arm from private equity group Warburg Pincus. Heh, it was either private equity or a sovereign wealth fund (SWF). </font></p>
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<img border="0" align="baseline" src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z01_30.gif" />  <strong>Japan is taking steps to create its first sovereign wealth fund. </strong>Japan’s financial services minister, the U.K. newspaper the Times says, is touring other SWFs of the world, and Japan is well into the design phase of its own state-controlled investment body. </font></p>
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<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">Japan is the world’s largest holder of U.S. Treasuries. Of the country’s $973 billion in reserves, $580 billion are U.S. bonds. That investment, versus the value of the yen, is down about 13% over the past year alone. If and when Japan launches its SWF, it could easily become the world’s second largest (behind Abu Dhabi’s massive $1.3 trillion fund). Our Chris Hancock has put together a special report on how such funds could save your retirement nest egg… <a href="http://www.isecureonline.com/Reports/OSS/EOSSJ139">read it here.</a></p>
<p align="left" class="BodyCopy"><img border="0" align="baseline" src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z01_46.gif" />  <strong>Ratings agency Standard &amp; Poor’s said it has begun cutting ratings of as much as $534 billion in additional mortgage backed securities and CDOs. </strong></p>
<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">According to S&amp;P officials, the downgrades could cost the world’s holders of such securities more than $265 billion in losses. Such losses would have a “ripple impact” on broader financial markets, a release from the agency said. That would be shocking.</p>
<p align="left" class="BodyCopy"><img border="0" align="baseline" src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z01_57.jpg" />  <strong>The Chinese are currently suffering through their worst winter in over 50 years. </strong></p>
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<div align="center"><img border="0" align="baseline" src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/China%20storm.jpg" /></div>
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<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">What was a bitter nuisance is quickly becoming nothing short of a national crisis. A particularly nasty storm struck China this week on the verge of the Chinese New Year… the biggest annual human migration in the world.</p>
<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">Some 178 million Chinese &#8212; more than the entire population of Russia &#8212; are attempting to travel throughout the week to celebrate the New Year with families. All over China, the winter weather has shut down the majority of airports and railroads, and now tens of millions of Chinese travelers are stranded.</p>
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<div align="center"><img border="0" align="baseline" src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/China%20train.jpg" /><br />
<em>What fun: Just a few of the 500,000 people stuck at the Guangzhou Railway Station.</em></div>
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<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">BusinessWeek estimated the railroad crisis has already cost the Chinese government over $3 billion in damages. Protestors are taking to the streets. If anything, it’s an incredible testament to the multitudes and groupthink at play in China… where else would 178 million people try to get up and go somewhere at the same time?</p>
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<img border="0" align="baseline" src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z02_59.gif" />  <strong>Despite recession and personal income fears, this weekend’s Super Bowl is expected to be one of the most lucrative of all time. </strong>The National Retail Federation estimates the average American will spend $59 dollars on Super Bowl-related goods, up 3 bucks from last year. </font></p>
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<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">The NAF says some 1.8 million pieces of furniture will be purchased just for the big game, up 38% from 2007. That’s not including the nearly 4 million TVs expected to be purchased, up 50% from last year. Also, the average cost for a 30-second commercial during the game will cost $2.7 million this year, up $100,000 from last year &#8212; double that of 1997.</p>
<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">Yeah, good to know where the consumers’ heads and hearts lie.</p>
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<img border="0" align="baseline" src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z03_22.gif" />  <strong>“I found your take on the buying of Jaguar and Land Rover by Tata interesting,” </strong>writes a reader. “These cars have about as much ‘Americana’ symbolism as cricket and kidney pie.”</font></p>
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<p align="left" class="BodyCopy"><font size="2" face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><strong>The 5: </strong>Touche. We heard from a number of readers on our misuse of the term “Americana.” Apart from the fact that one of your editors drives a Land Rover and loves it, we only meant to show that now they’ll no longer have anything to do with the American economy.</font></p>
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<img border="0" align="baseline" src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z03_45.gif" />  <strong>“I felt a never-before numbing chill,” </strong>writes a reader, “when I read about the Chinese establishing manufacturing plants in the U.S. by buying up land and buildings and hiring local workers. The word that leaped to mind wasn&#8217;t “slavery.” It was “serfdom.” </font></p>
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<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">“We are becoming a nation of serfs beholden to foreign powers in the Mideast and Far East. The America I knew when growing up is changing forever as the dissembling Chinese take all those dollars they&#8217;ve accumulated by unfair trade policies, i.e., yuan valuation, and use them to dump junk in our country, build up their military and buy our country out from under us in a pincer movement.</p>
<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">“Next in line to buy up America are the Islamic oil sultans. Add to this unholy mix NAFTA and the Mexico-U.S.-Canada superhighway and you no longer have a country. Nationalism is being replaced by mercantilism, and those dumb *&amp;$#tards in Washington and the greedy bankers in New York who have given us a worthless dollar and our subprime moment in history have brought it about.</p>
<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">“Can the amero currency be far behind? Or a one-world government to manage the global economy? I fear for our future. This is not what our forefathers fought the British for back in the 1700s, or our grandfathers fought for in the 1940s to stop the Germany-Japan axis. Where are today&#8217;s Samuel Adams, George Washington and Dwight Eisenhower? Doesn&#8217;t anybody see what&#8217;s happening to us? Doesn&#8217;t anyone care enough to pull us back from the abyss?”</p>
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<img border="0" align="baseline" src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z04_24.gif" />  <strong>“What ought to be done is for the government to invest $400 billion in our infrastructure,” </strong>writes another reader. “The government can contract (with American companies and employees only) to build all the renewable energy (wind, solar, wave and geothermal) systems needed to replace all the coal and natural gas systems, and get ourselves started on an electrical transportation system in the process.</p>
<p>“This would stimulate the economy, as opposed to squandering more dollars and devaluing the dollar, which only leads to more inflation. Our country would then have the cheapest and most reliable power in the world &#8212; one great asset when it comes to being competitive on the world market. Be one healthy place to live, too.”</font></p>
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</font></p>
<p align="left" class="BodyCopy"><font size="2" face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><strong>The 5 responds: </strong>Amen.</font></p>
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<img border="0" align="baseline" src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z04_43.jpg" />  <strong>“Now that you are an experienced media exec, how about putting The 5 Min. Forecast on video downloadable through the Web?” </strong>asks our last reader. “A 20-30 minute show should do it. I suspect 90% of your readership is male, so good-looking female presenters would be a plus. Once the masses understand that they can make 3 times the money watching your show instead of CNBC, advertisers will beat down your door.”</p>
<p><strong>The 5: </strong>Hmnn… maybe we should. But do you really think the world needs 30 more minutes of us each day? We were thinking five minutes is a stretch. </font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif"></p>
<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">Regards,</p>
<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">Addison Wiggin,<br />
The 5 Min. Forecast</p>
<p></font></p>
<p align="left" class="BodyCopy"><font size="2" face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><strong>P.S. <a href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/iousa.html">I.O.U.S.A.</a> continues its post Sundance “buzz” online. </strong>Yesterday, Zoom In Online, a local Webzine that covers Sundance, <a href="http://www.zoom-in.com/sundance/blog/2008/01/i_o_u_s_a_review_background_buzz">posted some audience member comments</a> after they saw the movie&#8230; and Patrick, Dave and Bob did an interview with Federal News Radio, <a href="http://www.federalnewsradio.com/index.php?sid=1312168&amp;nid=169">here.</a><br />
</font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif"></p>
<p align="left" class="BodyCopy">Now we just need to get the candidates addressing these issues. Yes, we know <a href="http://www.ronpaul2008.com/">Ron Paul</a> does… but what about that tired old war hero who’s promising to keep us in Iraq for 100 years? Or Hillary and Barack, who keep dissing each other over who’s more “likeable”?</p>
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